The impact of public events on the methanol market
The new coronavirus has spread globally on a largescale. Countries with more new cases include South Korea, Italy, Iran, Japan,and Germany. This article analyzes the methanol supply and demand in thesecountries and its impact on China's methanol supply and demand. It alsoanalyzes the impact of public events on methanol prices through thetransmission path of crude oil.
The impact of social and public events on globaleconomic growth is reflected in crude oil, which is a sharp decline in demand,resulting in a continuous decline in crude oil. Crude oil has a greater impacton the remaining energy prices and downstream chemical prices. Methanolproduction costs have fallen. The prices of ethylene and propylene monomer havefallen. The economics of olefin production are threatened, and the priceceiling of methanol will be significantly lowered. If crude oil prices remainlow or continue to decline, the price of methanol may be lowered to 1600-1800yuan / ton.
South Korea, Italy, and Japan do not have methanolcapacity, so they have little impact on global methanol supply. Germanproduction accounts for less of the global supply and demand is not large.South Korea and Japan ’s methanol imports are about 4 million tons. Have animpact on demand of at least 10%. Iran is the third largest methanol producerin the world and the largest methanol importer in China. It has a 7% disruptionof our methanol supply. Concerns about economic growth since the outbreak ofpublic events have caused crude oil prices to fall by more than 50%, naturalgas prices to fall by 15%, ethylene prices to fall by 23%, propylene prices tofall by 11%, and methanol prices to fall by 19%. The decline in the price ofenergy products and downstream chemicals caused by the decline in crude oilprices has suppressed the cost of methanol and the ceiling price, which has alarge negative impact on the price of methanol. We believe that the price ofmethanol will continue to move down to 1600-1800 / yuan ton. However, due tothe impact on Iran's supply and China's imports, there is no shortage ofshort-term pulse upwards.